This thesis examines predictions journalists made during the Gulf War, to include whether or not force would be used, and, if so, how. Predictions that might have caused security violations were examined, as was the military's use of the media to...
The purpose of this study is to determine why intelligence officers acting as battalion S-2 have difficulty predicting the enemy. It hypothesizes that two causes: lack of experience of the principal officers conducting IPB and inadequate emphasis...
From 1990 to 2010, China's military experienced a massive modernization effort. U.S. efforts to determine the scale and scope of this effort were incorrect. In the case of the People's Liberation Army Air Forces (PLAAF), advanced technology and a...
The Joint Non-Kinetic Effects Model (JNEM) is a computer based simulation for training Division and Corps Commanders and Staffs in a manner that accurately replicates the complexities of interacting with civilian populations. The model replicates...
This study examines factors influencing the development of theory and doctrine based on emerging and future technology. It uses the air power theory of Giulio Douhet and the unescorted daylight strategic bombing doctrine of the US Army Air Force to...
The purpose of this study is to identify a decision-making process appropriate to the nature of operational art. The monograph characterizes the process by which the operational level commander perceives the mission and the current situation, makes...
The problem facing practitioners of emerging Army doctrine is how to expand the use of assessments beyond detailed planning to support conceptual planning during design. This raises the question, will the use of assessments enable the commander to...
This monograph answers the question, Will users of the information technology systems develop the situational understanding and visualization to enhance the battlefield decision making capabilities in the Force XXI mechanized battalions and...
This monograph finds that the US Army's decision making process taught in its schools and branch courses relies too heavily on an iterative analytical method called the Deliberate Decision Making Process or DDMP. Within this process there exists a...
The construct for predictive analysis is based on the unfounded assumption that technologies and sound analysis will dissipate uncertainty in war. U.S. military doctrine shows an expectation for prediction from the intelligence process; it assumes...
This study contrasts two opposing theories which have shaped the U.S. Army's tactical intelligence process since 1940. One theory holds that the best kind of tactical intelligence is predictive in nature. The other theory states that tactical...
The formation of the MI battalion in a U.S. Army heavy division brought a Military Intelligence commander of the same rank as the G2 into existence. The existence of two Military Intelligence lieutenant colonels in a heavy division has caused a...
Current predictions indicate that the most likely military peer opponent to the United States in the next century will be the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of the People's Republic of China (PRC). These predictions stem from areas of mutual...
Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) is an increasingly complex and challenging aspect of maritime warfare. Technologically advanced countries such as Germany, Sweden, and France continue to develop advances in diesel submarine technology that make these...
This paper is a concept document for North American regional security cooperation. The concept is a comprehensive, whole-government approach to regional security. It centers on actions the United States has and is taking from diplomatic,...
The U.S. Army's repair parts system has experienced continuing problems. Cost and transportability factors limit the amount of stocks we can keep at the unit level. Difficulties in the distribution system compound the resupply problem. Even after a...
In the wake of the Cold War, the U.S. Army increasingly finds its institutional focus shifting away from preparing for sustained mechanized land combat. This trend serves the Army’s immediate operational needs and addresses its perceived need to...
Why has an S2 never won a wargame when playing predicted enemy courses of action against a friendly course of action during the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP)? Why did the V Corps commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) respond to...
A new environment, a new paradigm faces United States policy and decision makers. The bipolar world of superpower control and confrontation has been replaced with an unipolar world lead by the United States. A rapid evolution is occurring. A...
This monograph examines the ability of intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) to provide predictive intelligence. IPB is the foundation of tactical intelligence and plays a major role in tactical planning prior to the battle. There is a...